There’s not much chance for a white Christmas in the Santa Clarita Valley this year, although drivers could see a light snow if they’re at the top of the pass Friday, according to this week’s forecast.
But rain is another story.
Ahead of Santa Claus’ much-anticipated arrival this week, the Santa Clarita Valley can count on up to 8 inches of rain, prompting a flood watch, with a wind warning likely, too, according to a National Weather Service forecast.
Meteorologists on Monday did not hold back when sharing concern for the level of rain the SCV was expecting over the next four to five days, starting Tuesday, which is likely to get anywhere from 6 inches to a foot of rain in the mountains.
Snow levels could drop to 5,500 feet on Christmas Day, Kristan Lund, meteorologist for the NWS, said in a phone interview Monday, but subtropical moisture from an atmospheric river coming Tuesday is the real potential problem.
“The main period of concern really is the Tuesday-night-through-Thursday period and possibly into Friday,” Lund said.
“There’s a little bit of interest with this, because there’s essentially two kinds of impulses with the storm. There’s one coming in (Tuesday) night, and that’s where we’ll see very heavy rainfall,” she said, saying it likely would be the heaviest they’ve seen all year.
“So we’re concerned about creeks, just widespread flooding, especially with the holiday travel, I know it’s really tough, but we’re encouraging people to either get to their locations early and leave late or not travel at all on Christmas Eve for Christmas,” she said, “because it is pretty concerning about how much rain we’re gonna get.”
There’s also the threat of convection, which means thunderstorm chances and gusty winds, which are likely through the Tuesday-night-through-Thursday period, she said.
While the odds are the storm may see a bit of a lull Wednesday — which she referred to as a period that would likely just see lighter rain, not clear skies — she said if convection conditions occur, all bets are off.
She also said that’s why the flood warnings should be taken especially seriously.
“Unlike previous events … in previous years, where we’re really concerned about the burn scars, in particular, we’re still worried about the burn scars, but it’s everywhere that we’re concerned about now, because we could see road closures, we could see rocks and mudslides, land movement in canyons and below foot or below mountain, foothills, that sort of thing,” Lund said, warning would-be travelers. “So not just the burn scar, but anywhere, especially because we’ve already had a bit of moisture and the soils aren’t too dry, even though we have had a break since the last storm.”
The rain continues to be good news for the region’s water supply, about which SCV Water Agency officials expressed optimism earlier this month.
Kevin Strauss, spokesman for the Santa Clarita Valley Water Agency, said in an interview earlier this month that the latest measurements likely mean the area is on pace to meet or exceed last year’s allocation from the State Water Project.
Unrelated to any supply concerns, a request from SCV Water that customers stop outdoor watering ended Monday, just in time.
The request actually came from the state’s Department of Water Resources, which had long needed to service the connections from the state pipeline to the local reservoir, according to local water officials. The work had been delayed last year due to the outbreak of wildfires.
Strauss said Monday via a text message the state would be making a similar request in the third week of February to finish the work, but those dates were still being finalized.
“This first stage was for inspection and to remove a valve that needs repair,” Strauss wrote, adding the agency expected to know more in January. “They will do the repair work next and come back to complete the project in February.”
