News release
Reps. George Whitesides, D-Agua Dulce, Don Bacon, R-Nebraska, and Seth Moulton, D-Massachusetts, introduced the bipartisan No Insider Trading on National Security Act of 2026, legislation that investigates insider trading within the Department of Defense during the war in Iran.
Whitesides introduced the bill following evidence of suspicious trades being made on prediction markets during Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela and Operation Epic Fury in Iran, said a news release from the congressman’s office.
“Profiting off of events like war and human suffering by using insider information is a blatantly corrupt and unacceptable practice that cannot be allowed to continue,” Whitesides said in the release. “We must crack down on anyone who uses private information to pad their pockets at the expense of our soldiers. This legislation will help us root out bad actors within the administration and restore sanity and trust to our government.”
On prediction markets like Polymarket, the average win rate for most categories on the site is about 18%. For military and defense actions, that number jumps to 52%, the release said. One user, under the account name “MAGA-my-man,” made close to $600,000 by betting on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the release said.
Another group of traders placed roughly $500 million on an energy market in future oil trades, according to the release. Minutes later, an announcement was made postponing strikes in Iran. In April, a U.S. Army special forces soldier was charged with making more than $400,000 betting on the ouster of Nicolas Maduro on Polymarket.
The No Insider Trading on National Security Act instructs the Department of Defense’s inspector general to investigate insider trading on both energy and prediction markets during Operation Epic Fury, assess risks posed by the potential trading, and recommend safeguards for future use.
Additionally, Whitesides wrote to top prediction market CEOs urging them to work with the Trump Administration to crack down on this practice, citing documented instances of irregular trading during military incidents, the release said.
