With the main ingredients in place — an extremely dry heat following back-to-back wet winters — firefighters this week shared their concerns about the potential for a very troublesome fire season.
A July report by the National Interagency Fire Center predicted the beginning of this year’s fire season would be slow, and so far, it has.
From June 1 to the end of July in 2023, the Santa Clarita Valley saw 26 wildland fires; so far this year, there have been 20, according to information provided by the L.A. County Fire Department.
“It seems like it’s been a lot more,” said Craig Little, a public information officer for the Fire Department, adding that last year was a relatively less busy fire season.
However, this year, things may just be getting going, according to NIFC experts.
“Above normal significant fire potential is also forecast for portions of the Idaho Panhandle, southwest Montana, and central and southern California in August and September,” according to the agency’s Aug. 1 outlook, a risk that could continue into November.
“Fire activity increased significantly across the western U.S. in the first half of July and remained at extreme levels through the end of the month,” according to the report. “With the increase in activity through the first half of July, the National Preparedness Level was increased to four (on a scale of 1-5) on July 10 and five on July 18.”
While the activity is expected to pick up locally, too, no one knows when exactly.
“It’s really hard to predict. I mean, if the weather conditions continue the way they are, we can probably expect something like that,” Little said in a phone interview Monday, referring to a more active fire season.
“We don’t want to encourage any fire bugs out there that want to help us boost our numbers,” he added, “but there is a good chance because I think it’s been a hotter and drier summer than we had last year.”
He said the Fire Department has finished its property inspections for the season, and there is some follow-up for properties that aren’t in compliance. He described that number as “minimal,” although he did not have the data immediately available.
The SCV weather forecast had a small measure of good news with “a slight cooling off” expected through the weekend, according to Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office.
However, cooling off is relative after several days of temperatures that have exceeded triple digits.
“Nothing really extreme,” Wofford said, referring to the forecast, “just mostly in that mid- to high-90s range.”
Angeles National Forest officials, who also play a critical role in local wildfire management, also shared concerns about the human element and asked for residents’ help to keep things safe this summer and fall.
“Although the Southern California Wildfire Season started very slow due to a great rain year and high fuel moistures, the fine fuels such as grasses and smaller forbes (flowering plants) have fully dried out,” said Angeles National Forest Fire Chief Robert Garcia.
“Current activity throughout SoCal and most of the west is in peak wildfire activity,” he added. “As temperatures continue to rise, we are seeing a significant number of wildfires start in the greater Los Angeles area, including in the Angeles National Forest.
“The vast majority of our wildfires in the area are human-caused, so we need the public’s support to prevent wildfires.”
Angeles National Forest officials also said visitors to the federal lands are encouraged to always check fire restrictions before every visit, as they can change at any time with little to no notice.
For more information on the fire forecast in the forest, visit https://bit.ly/3AcyaeB.