Following above-average precipitation in Northern California since late November, the state Department of Water Resources has increased its State Water Project allocation forecast by 10%, the agency announced this week.
The initial forecast from early December had 5% of requested supplies for 2025 being allocated, but it is now projected that 15% of requested supplies can be fulfilled.
The SWP provides water to 29 public water agencies, including SCV Water, that serve 27 million Californians.
Each year, DWR provides SWP allocation forecasts based on available water storage, projected water supply, and water demands, according to a DWR news release.
“Allocations are updated monthly as snowpack, rainfall, and runoff information is assessed, with a final allocation typically determined in May or June,” the release reads. “As the winter progresses, if California sees an increase in rain and snowfall, the allocation forecast may increase. The next update will likely come in January and will use information from the first snow surveys of the season.”
Earlier this month, SCV Water spokesman Kevin Strauss said it was anticipated that the initial projection would rise, as it typically does over time.
“We do anticipate that the allocation will go up over time by the end of this water year and getting our state water supplies, we have been working diligently internally and with partners to ensure that we have adequate supplies of water for the Santa Clarita Valley,” Strauss said at the time.
For comparison, last year’s initial allocation was 10% and increased to 40% by the end of the year.
This year’s initial allocation did not include the series of strong storms in Northern California as the data was not yet available.
According to the release, reservoir levels have increased since those storms and have helped to boost statewide precipitation to just above average for this time of year.
“The past several weeks has brought welcome rain and snow to Northern California and these improved conditions have allowed the State Water Project to increase the allocation forecast to the benefit of millions of Californians,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth in the release. “While we typically wait to provide an update until January, we felt it important to let our State Water Contractors know of the increase as soon as possible to allow them to better plan their water supply for the year ahead.”
Southern California continues to remain “very dry,” according to the release, and there has been little no benefit from atmospheric rivers that have experienced so far during the water year, which begins Oct. 1 each year.
“State water managers will continue to monitor precipitation and snowpack conditions as well as account for dry soils that may soak up some of the spring runoff following record heat this past summer,” the release states.
