The Newhall School District governing board was told at Tuesday’s meeting that the district’s student population is projected to decrease over the next seven years.
David Kaitz, vice president and senior project manager at MGT, formerly known as Davis Demographics, presented the board with the data he collected from Oct. 2 last year. The current population of students, according to the district data, is 6,021 students.
Kaitz is projecting the district to lose approximately 205 students by the 2031-32 school year, approximately a 3.4% decrease.
Kaitz said that when compiling the data together, him and his team will look out seven consecutive years and look back about three or four years historically to be as accurate as possible.
According to Kaitz, there are three factors that go into coming up with the student forecasts. He said birth factors indicate how many babies historically have been born within district boundaries, and how many are expected to be born in the future and enroll in the district beginning in kindergarten and to some degree transitional kindergarten; mobility factors take into account how many students could be entering into the district after moving within the boundaries; and student yield factors help estimate how many students could be entering the district due to new housing developments.
He said there are currently nine housing projects that are active or will be in the next seven years within two elementary school boundaries. An estimated 746 units are set to be added over the next seven years, with 412 of the units being condos or townhomes. According to the presentation, almost all of the new units will be in the Oak Hills Elementary School boundary.
The demographic report notes that, based on recent reports, FivePoint Valencia has planned to complete the active Mission Village units but does not have plans to build more of its projects within the district area over the next seven years.
“The majority of your district does not have development, or they’re built out. That’s why a lot of your schools or zones are showing declines,” said Kaitz. “Whereas Oak Hills shows growth for obvious reasons, but there’s a disparity between a lot of your zones.”
He added that he has been delivering similar news to other districts throughout California as well, and as unfortunate as the news is, he wanted to tell the board members they are not alone in experiencing decline in student population.
Board member Sue Solomon said, “The report itself isn’t presenting something we already could know based on what we do know. We appreciate the work on that. Our district makes an extended effort to advertise our district so that we do bring in students to be in our district.”
Kaitz referenced back to the demographic report saying that in 2021 the district had 567 out-of-district students, which has slowly increased to 656 this year. He said it could possibly be due to the campaign’s efforts or that parents want to enroll their students in the district.
“I have districts, that’s not happening to. So I’m trying to as best as I can paint this positive picture with again the mobility,” said Kaitz.
Board member Donna Robert made a motion to approve the student population report and Solomon seconded. The motion passed 5-0.
