California hasn’t elected a Republican governor in nearly two decades. Yet in the 2026 governor’s race, the biggest threat to Democratic dominance may not come from Republicans — it may come from Democrats themselves.
The reason is not ideology or a sudden shift in voter sentiment. The reason is math and California’s unique “top-two” primary system.
Adopted by voters in 2010, the system places all candidates on the same primary ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, even if they belong to the same party. The reform was designed to weaken partisan gridlock and reward moderation. Instead, it has sometimes created unpredictable electoral outcomes.
This year, that unpredictability may reshape California’s race to replace outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom. As many as eight prominent Democrats are competing to succeed him, each representing a different faction of the party and each convinced they have a viable path to victory.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan appeals to moderate voters and the tech community. Rep. Eric Swalwell is energizing progressive voters with a strong national message. Former Rep. Katie Porter continues to draw attention from activist Democrats, particularly in Southern California. Former State Controller Betty Yee has built support among moderate Democrats and Asian-American voters.
Meanwhile, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former U.S. Attorney General Xavier Becerra are competing for Latino voters, with Becerra also benefiting from strong ties to organized labor.
Each of these candidates is credible. Each has a loyal political base. And each campaign believes it can emerge from a crowded field. But collectively, they may be creating a dangerous electoral scenario.
Recent polling shows many of the Democratic candidates clustered within just a few percentage points of one another. At the same time, two Republican candidates, political commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, appear to be consolidating Republican voters, each drawing somewhere between 15 and 20% support in early surveys.
Under California’s primary rules, that math matters more than party registration.
If Democratic voters divide their majority support among eight candidates, Hilton and Bianco could theoretically finish first and second with barely 20% of the vote or even less.
That would produce a stunning result: a Republican-only general election in one of the most Democratic states in the country.
Democratic leaders understand the risk. Behind the scenes, party officials reportedly urged several candidates to step aside before the filing deadline in order to avoid this exact scenario. But none did.
Every campaign believes it can assemble a winning coalition. Every candidate sees a pathway through the crowded field.
History suggests the concern is not hypothetical.
In 2014, Democrats nearly produced the same outcome in the race for California controller when multiple Democratic candidates split the vote. Only a late surge prevented a Republican-only general election.
More than a decade later, the stakes are far higher.
This crowded primary is not simply a political accident. It reflects the gradual fragmentation of the governing coalition that defined the Newsom era, one that brought together environmental groups, organized labor, progressive activists, business-friendly moderates and a diverse statewide electorate.
Today those factions are competing for the future direction of the Democratic Party.
Republicans, by contrast, face simpler arithmetic.
With fewer candidates and a more unified voter base, Hilton and Bianco may not need majority support to advance. They may only need Democrats to remain divided.
California still strongly favors Democrats in statewide elections, and the party maintains a significant voter-registration advantage. Even if a Republican reaches the general election, a Democratic victory would remain likely. But California’s top-two primary system introduces an element of unpredictability. And in politics, unpredictable systems can produce surprising outcomes.
The larger question for Democrats is not simply whether they can avoid an electoral accident. It is whether they can produce a leader capable of uniting a coalition that increasingly appears fractured.
Mihran Kalaydjian
Santa Clarita
