An updated resident student forecast for the Newhall School District was presented during last week’s governing board meeting, where it was stated that the overall student population is expected to increase over the next seven years.
The presentation was given by David Kaitz of MGT, formerly known as Davis Demographics, whose new name is an acronym standing for the first letter of the Latin words for expertise, service and talent: magister, gratia and talentum.
The consultants measured birth factors, mobility factors and student yield factors. The data allows the district to project budgets and a long-term approach to plan strategically in facilities, such as adding or converting classrooms, according to Arik Avanesyans, district assistant superintendent of business services.
According to the presentation, for grades TK-6 within the Newhall district, there are 5,323 students enrolled out of the estimated 6,288 population living within its boundaries.
Kaitz, who has performed the resident student forecast for a number of local school districts over the past three decades, said the highest student density for the Newhall School District could be found between McGrath Elementary School and Newhall Elementary School, and between Old Orchard Elementary School, Pico Canyon Elementary School. The third most dense area was near Oak Hills Elementary School.
The higher student density areas could be due to apartment complexes and more housing units compared to other more open or rural spaces.
In relation to transfer patterns, the district saw a number of students transferring out and to nearby school districts. The school that saw the highest number of transfers out was Newhall Elementary School with 274 students (45.8% of those who live in the school’s boundary area) transferring out, partially offset by 117 students transferring in.
Wiley Canyon had a slightly higher “transfer out” rate, at 46%, driven by 239 transfers out vs. 87 transfers in.
The school that saw the highest interdistrict transfers, or transfers from one school to another in the same district, was Old Orchard Elementary School, which had a reported 55.9% “open enrollment rate,” which includes 224 transfers in, vs. 132 transfers out.
The district brought in 603 kindergarteners for the 2025-26 school year, and MGT predicts, according to the presentation, that the kindergarten cohort will increase to 663 students in the 2026-27 school year, 653 in the 2027-28 school year, and 660 students in the 2028-29 school year.
More than 10 residential developments are currently active or expected to be active over the next seven years within three elementary school areas, totaling approximately 3,100 units when combining numbers of condominiums, apartments and single-family homes. About 44% of the units will be in the Oak Hills Elementary School area and 27% in the Newhall Elementary School area.
The area with the most potential growth is within the Oak Hills school boundaries, where it’ll grow from 606 current TK-6 residents to 953 by the 2032-33 school year, which is a net increase of 347 more students due to the Valencia by FivePoint housing projects. The other two notable increases will be in the Newhall and Wiley Canyon elementary school areas.
The district’s other seven school zones are expected to remain stable or decline through the 2032-33 school year, according to the presentation.
