The latest Report of Registration for the November election indicates that while some district boundary lines may seem to have shifted north after the 2020 U.S. Census, the voter numbers in Santa Clarita Valley districts moved a little to the left.
The numbers indicate the voters registered with “no party preference” more than make up the difference in registration and will play a determinative role in November.
The SCV’s congressional race is an example of how the electoral maps have changed the demographics for the area over the past four years.
At first glance, the biggest difference between the 25th Congressional District in 2020 and the 27th Congressional District in 2024, which were both drawn along similar lines, largely centered around the SCV, is a portion in the northern half of the district that includes Los Angeles County up to the Kern County line, adding the rest of Lancaster and Quartz Hill.
The new 27th Congressional District also severed the portion of Ventura County in Simi Valley and put it back in the 26th District with Ventura and Moorpark.
As a result, the district also saw its registration numbers change.
The 27th District’s Ventura County-ectomy resulted in a loss of nearly 73,000 registered voters from there, who skewed Republican versus Democrat at a clip of 28,211 to 24,378, according to comparable 123-day reports for 2020 and 2024.
Overall, the 2020 report indicated that the district, which ultimately was won by Rep. Mike Garcia, a Republican from Santa Clarita, favored Democratic Party voters in registration numbers between both counties, 164,880 to 134,202.
In that election, there were 94,716 voters registered as “no party preference,” just over 79,000 in Los Angeles County and nearly 16,000 in Ventura County, out of a total of 420,505 voters.
The registration numbers were not reflected in the large lead that Garcia took in the March Primary Election, winning the race by more than 20 points, 54.9% to 32.8%.
It’s still considered a “toss-up” district by many, including the well-known Cook Political Report, though largely because of how the NPP’s have ended up voting. Garcia won by 333 votes in 2020.
In the new 27th Congressional District where Garcia is seeking reelection against challenger George Whitesides, a Democrat, the registration numbers lean slightly more Democratic, but there are also a few more NPP registrants.
In the new district, which is entirely in L.A. County, there are 450,302 registered voters as of the 123-day report, with 184,332 Democrats (40.94%) and 135,298 Republicans (30.02%), a difference of nearly 50,000.
However, there are now 94,716 NPP voters, who have clearly been the difference makers in the past few elections.
As a recent CalMatters report has pointed out, the 27th Congressional District is one of five GOP-held districts in California that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, which is why it will be one of the most closely watched toss-ups this November in the battle for control of the House.
The Republican Party currently has 220 representatives in the House to the Democratic Party’s 212, with three vacancies. (Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-New Jersey, died April 24. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisconsin, resigned April 25 and Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, died July 19.)
When asked for comment from the campaign what each candidate sees as the most important issues facing voters, Garcia reiterated points he mentioned at a recent local stop: security, for the economy, local neighborhoods, at the border and for national interests.
“California families are struggling as inflation and cost of living continue to soar. Meanwhile rising crime, fueled by radical, soft-on-crime policies, threatens the security of our communities. I’m committed to ending inflation, cutting taxes, and ensuring security for CA-27,” he wrote in a statement from his campaign last week.
Whitesides said he was running to protect funding for important programs.
“As an aerospace businessman who helped create 700 jobs in Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley, I’m focused on helping people afford to live around here,” he wrote in his campaign statement. “That means protecting Social Security and Medicare, reforms to make gas and groceries less expensive, and creating good paying jobs in this area.”
