Santa Clarita City Manager Ken Striplin said that, based on regional and national economic forecasts, the city is anticipating small but steady growth in 2026, during a preview of the 2026-27 spending plan with the City Council Budget Committee.
Striplin said he was trying to give a high-level overview of the numbers with the City Council ahead of a study session Tuesday with all City Council and commission members, as well as answer any questions. The council’s standing committee includes Mayor Laurene Weste and Councilwoman Patsy Ayala.
The preliminary estimate calls for $154.8 million in city revenue, a 1.4% increase in this year’s budget, while expenditures are expected to total $154.5 million, according to Striplin’s presentation.
Sales tax revenue, which is traditionally the city’s largest revenue source after property taxes, is expected to remain flat at approximately $50.4 million.
Striplin shared the projections city staffers use for their estimates, reports from the International Monetary Fund, Kiplinger’s and UCLA Anderson Forecast, among others.
“Early indications of ’26 suggest a stable economy with mild potential for growth,” Striplin said. “The IMF, or International Monetary Fund, has forecasted global growth at 3.1% in ’26, which is very similar to what we had in 2025 at 3.2%. You’ll see some kind of a similar pattern here on the national level.”
Striplin said Kiplinger’s is projecting inflation to remain at 2025 levels, spiking early this year and then coming down to slightly lower than last year’s, in the neighborhood of 2.6%, he said.
“The rising inflation can be attributed to the lagging effect of tariff policies,” he added, mentioning there are also predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut rates once per quarter this year, a call Striplin labeled “aggressive.”
The housing market has remained “frozen” since 2023, he said, with not much change at the state level. One challenge for the market, he said, is that the rise in insurance rates is likely to cancel out an increase in the availability of loans from lower interest rates.
Speaking of the state level, California’s economy is expected to mirror the nation’s: slow but steady growth.
He also mentioned a few notable numbers from the local picture.
“Over the past year, the number of jobs in the city has increased by roughly 4%,” he said, adding the city has more than 100,000 jobs — “This is very precise: 100,605 jobs.”
Mentioning a concern that was brought up during last year’s forecast, local filming has yet to recover from pre-strike levels.
There was a $14.6 million impact from local filming, according to Striplin’s numbers, which he said represented more than a 50% reduction from the traditional impact, which was in the neighborhood of $35 million.
“We do have some good news, though,” he added. “We’ve got locally based shows, like ‘NCIS’ and ‘SWAT’ and ‘Exiles,’ the new HBO series, and multiple feature films are set to release in 2026, so still some activity moving in the positive direction.”
Looking at construction, there were 5,200 permits issued for just under $500 million of new construction.
Some of the projects in the pipeline, so to speak, include about 352 units for the Wiley Canyon project, which was just dealt a legal challenge; 375 homes for the Bouquet Canyon Road project that’s riled up residents in that area; Sand Canyon Plaza is adding another 500 units to the Santa Clarita Valley’s total; the Tesoro project has about 500 of its 800 recently approved homes built; “and as you know, the single biggest entitlement that we will work on is Sunridge, which is about 5,700 homes (at the 990-acre former Whittaker-Bermite site) for probably the Planning Commission (this year) — I’m not sure if it will make it to the council this year,” Striplin said
The city is planning for incremental growth in 2026, he said, with several other meetings planned throughout the year expected to discuss updated projections before the final numbers are presented to the City Council in June for approval.
