The Saugus Union School District governing board was told at Tuesday’s meeting that the district’s student population is projected to increase over the next seven years.
David Kaitz, vice president and senior project manager at Davis Demographics, presented the governing board with the data he collected from October last year. The current population of students, according to the district data, is 9,191 students.
Kaitz is projecting the district to have approximately 894 additional students in the 2031-32 school year, approximately a 9.7% increase.
“Each year we update your data with new student data. Each October is snapshot date. We also visit and call and contact active developments,” said Kaitz. “We fold these into a forecast as we look into recent trends.”
Kaitz added that when compiling the data together, the company will look out seven consecutive years and look back about three or four years historically in the interest of accuracy. They also take into account specific factors that only go on in the Saugus District.
According to Kaitz, there are three pillars to the methodology behind predicting the data. He said birth factors indicate how many babies have historically been born within district boundaries, and how many are expected to be born in the future and enroll in the district beginning in transitional kindergarten; mobility factors take into account how many students could be entering into the district after moving within the boundaries; and student yield factors help estimate how many students could be entering the district due to new housing developments.
Kaitz said that about 20 housing projects are in the works within the district’s boundaries. An estimated 2,571 units are set to be added over the next seven years, with 80% of the units being in the Bridgeport or Tesoro del Valle elementary school boundaries.
According to the demographic report attached to the meeting’s agenda, if any of these large projects that have not broken ground yet are delayed or pushed out, then the report analysis says the district can only expect a modest growth of about 300 students.
“That’s good news. I have been delivering a lot of not good news to other districts but that’s good for you,” said Kaitz. “I like to hope and think that those are happening because the parents are choosing your district to send their kids to your schools.”
Board member Matt Watson questioned Kaitz about how accurate his team’s projections have been historically. Kaitz said that before running a new forecast, he will review how his projections did the previous year and try to be within 1 to 2% of their projections.
Watson also asked where the students previously enrolled in Santa Clarita Elementary School are now being counted. Nick Heinlein, assistant superintendent of business, said that for this year the students who live in that area were counted in Charles Helmers Elementary School’s numbers and then for next year, the students will be counted in James Foster Elementary School’s numbers.
Kaitz mentioned that some families moving into the new FivePoint Valencia area are choosing to enroll their students in the Newhall School District over the Saugus district and that could lead to over-projecting numbers.
Watson asked at what point does the district begin talking about building in the area so that they do not lose those students. Heinlein said that the district is still a long way off from being able to build in that area.
Board member Anna Griese asked about who creates the district boundaries and what goes into deciding where to place them. Heinlein said that there is a committee at the county level that decides the boundary lines.
Griese followed up by asking how often districts redraw boundary lines. Heinlein said that it depends on what is going on but that the Saugus district needs to look at its boundaries very soon.
Superintendent Colleen Hawkins said that it most likely will not be looked at until the 2026-2027 school year, after the construction at James Foster Elementary School is complete, to make sure the district has the right building spaces before it begins dividing again.
