By Naveen Athrappully
Contributing Writer
Early-career workers, aged 22-25, face a disproportionate threat to job loss from the widespread adoption of generative artificial intelligence, according to a recent research paper from Stanford University.
These workers, in most AI-exposed occupations, have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment, said the authors of the research published online on Tuesday.
“In contrast, employment for workers in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or continued to grow.”
The team of researchers — Erik Brynjolfsson, senior fellow at Stanford, Bharat Chandar, a postdoctoral researcher, and Ruyu Chen, a research scientist — used data collected from ADP, the largest payroll software provider in the United States.
They found that employment declines in the American labor market are mostly happening in occupations susceptible to AI automation, and not as much in environments where human labor is augmented.
Software developers and customer service representatives were some of the most disrupted work environments following the significant proliferation of AI deployment, according to the researchers. Meanwhile, work for more experienced employees in the same sectors continued to grow.
Employment trends for “workers of all ages in less-exposed occupations such as nursing aides have remained stable,” said the paper.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman made similar observations during a discussion at the Federal Reserve Conference last month.
When asked which areas could see a significant amount of job losses due to AI, Altman said, “Some areas … are totally gone,” a reference to AI service bots replacing customer support human agents.
Altman further talked about the diagnostic capabilities of ChatGPT, but said he would not entrust it with his medical treatment without having a human doctor in the loop. This occupation class will continue to remain, even with AI.
Not All Jobs or Workers
Regarding computer programmers, Altman said they were 10 times more productive compared to before, with salaries rising in Silicon Valley. He did not address any specific categories of programmers.
“Things in the physical world will keep being done by humans for a while, but when this robotics wave comes crashing in, in another three to seven years, I think that’ll be a really big thing for society to reckon with,” said Altman.
According to Stanford researchers, data patterns related to shifting employment trends started in late 2022, around the time of the rapid proliferation of generative AI tools.
While AI may work toward replacing “book-learning” knowledge shown by entry-level workers, it will be less capable of substituting “tacit knowledge, the idiosyncratic tips and tricks that accumulate with experience,” they said.
Older workers thus remain less vulnerable to replacement.
Employment for 22- to 25-year-old software developers has gone down approximately 20% from the peak in 2022, said Chandar in a Tuesday X thread post, adding that older ages show a steady rise in employment.
Chandar said that health aides revealed an opposite trend, with youngsters seeing the fastest employment growth.
Chandar also pointed out the economic circumstances currently prevailing in the country, and said that not all job losses were attributable to AI.
According to a July 31 report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, American companies announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up 29% from 47,999 in June, and up 140% from last year.
“AI was cited for over 10,000 cuts last month, and tariff concerns have impacted nearly 6,000 jobs this year,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the firm.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs paints a more moderate outlook in a recent report.
Goldman said that AI could displace 6-7% of the U.S. workforce if AI is widely adopted; however, the impact will be short-lived. AI will open up new job opportunities.
“A recent pickup in AI adoption and reports of AI-related layoffs have raised concerns that AI will lead to widespread labor displacement,” said Joseph Briggs, who co-leads the Global Economics team in Goldman Sachs Research with economist Sarah Dong. “While these trends could broaden as adoption increases, we remain skeptical that AI will lead to large employment reductions over the next decade.”
Around 60% of occupations today did not exist in 1940, said Goldman. Most of the jobs today are driven by technological innovations.
“Predictions that technology will reduce the need for human labor have a long history but a poor track record,” Briggs and Dong said.
Goldman also noted that AI adoption remains relatively low, especially among mid-sized and small enterprises.
Briggs and Dong concluded that occupations at the highest risk of being displaced by AI in the coming years include computer programmers, accountants and auditors, legal and administrative assistants, customer service representatives, telemarketers, proofreaders and copy editors, and credit analysts.
Those at the least risk of being displaced are air traffic controllers, chief executives, radiologists, pharmacists, residential advisors, photographers and members of the clergy.
