By Chase Smith
Contributing Writer
Pete Buttigieg is the early leader in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey that shows the former Biden-era Transportation Department secretary narrowly ahead of other potential candidates.
Buttigieg, who was mayor of South Bend, Indiana, from 2012 to 2020, is supported by 16% of Democratic primary voters in the poll, conducted June 24-25.
Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, once seen as the likely frontrunner, placed second with 13%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 12%. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., were each backed by 7%. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., received 5%, and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., was at 3%.
Buttigieg’s performance echoes his strong showing in the 2020 Democratic primaries, when he emerged as a top-tier candidate. He finished first in the Iowa caucuses and second in New Hampshire before suspending his campaign in early March and endorsing Joe Biden.
Twenty-three percent of Democrat voters said they were undecided.
The poll marks a significant shift from November, when Harris led with 37% in a write-in format. At the time, Buttigieg registered just 4%, behind Newsom, Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that “the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans” on the 2026 congressional ballot but said independent voters remain highly undecided. The poll shows no clear Democratic frontrunner for 2028, with no candidate reaching even 20% support.
Speculation about Harris’s political future has increased since her loss to President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. While she remains a contender in early presidential polling, some Democrats have suggested she should instead run for California governor in 2026.
Harris has not confirmed her plans but told a crowd in April, “I’ll see you out there. I’m not going anywhere.”
The poll was conducted the same week that self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral primary, beating former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and prompting new questions about the party’s ideological direction. Some Democrats interpreted the upset as a sign of voter frustration with party elites and establishment endorsements.
“A lot of establishment Democrats still are not happy Mamdani won this,” former Democratic National Convention delegate Kaivan Shroff said after that race this past week. “But I don’t know that they were compelled by Cuomo to show up and actually make that statement at the polls.”
Broader discontent in the party’s base was shown in a June 11-16 Reuters/Ipsos poll, which found that 62% of Democrats want new leadership and a greater focus on economic issues concerning housing, health care and corporate accountability.
Former first lady Michelle Obama, who has periodically been floated as a potential presidential contender, ruled out any return to politics during a June 26 podcast interview.
“I’m not going to be in politics. I’m not giving another political speech,“ she said. ”I’m not campaigning for another candidate. But I’m here.”
Vance Leads Early GOP Field
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads the 2028 field with 46% support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio follows with 12%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 9%, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 5%. Vance’s support has risen steadily from 30% in November.
Trump has publicly praised Vance as a “fantastic, brilliant guy” and said the vice president could “very well be” at the top of the list to succeed him.
Among male GOP voters and those over 60, Vance holds a clear majority, drawing support from 52% of each group.
The poll also asked voters about a generic 2028 general election matchup. Forty-two percent said they would back the Democratic candidate, while 42% would support the Republican. Sixteen percent remain undecided. Among independents, Democrats lead 37% to 29%, with 34% still uncommitted.
The economy remains the top concern for voters, cited by 32%, followed by threats to democracy (22%), immigration (14%), health care (9%), housing affordability (7%), and crime (5%).
The Emerson survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters nationwide and has a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points.
