By Bill Pan
Contributing Writer
When millennials hit the traditional age of retirement, they could be facing a real estate landscape where a seven-figure price tag is the norm, a top housing economist said.
Speaking Tuesday at the National Association of Realtors’ annual conference, chief economist Lawrence Yun said the national median home price is on track to hit seven figures by around 2050.
While the forecast may sound radical, Yun noted that home-price appreciation over the past three decades suggests it is far from unprecedented.
In the early 1990s, for instance, the national median home price was roughly $100,000. Even in the San Francisco Bay Area — now synonymous with million-dollar homes — the median price was about $250,000 at the time.
Using multiple forecasting models, Yun said he arrived at a similar conclusion across different scenarios: the median U.S. home price could reach $1 million within roughly 25 to 30 years.
“Essentially, in one generation, maybe we will reach that mark,” he said.
The projection was issued as millennials, now the backbone of the nation’s workforce, make moderate gains in homeownership amid affordability challenges.
According to real-estate brokerage Redfin, 55.4% of millennials owned a home in 2025, up from 54.9% a year earlier. Generation Z adults also saw their homeownership rate increase, rising to 27.1% from 26.1% in 2024.
At the same time, millennials accounted for a smaller share of home purchases than a year ago. According to NAR’s latest Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report, millennials represented 26% of homebuyers in 2025, down from 29% the previous year. Baby boomers remained the largest cohort of buyers, accounting for 42% of purchases, unchanged from 2024.
Homeowners Pull Ahead
Yun also highlighted what he sees as a growing divide between Americans who own homes and those who rent. He predicted that housing wealth will continue to grow in 2026, estimating that the typical homeowner will gain approximately $16,000 in equity this year through home-price appreciation.
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels,” Yun said.
The median sales price of an existing home stood at $430,000 in May, according to NAR, while Zillow estimated the average U.S. rent across all property types at $2,006 per month.
Yun said he does not expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession in 2026 and forecasted that mortgage rates will remain relatively stable, averaging about 6.5% during the year.
According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.52% in mid-June, down from 6.84% a year earlier.
A ‘Wonky Market’
Also speaking at the conference was Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist and vice president of research, who described today’s housing market as unusually uneven.
“I’ve been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it’s a really wonky market,” Lautz told attendees. “You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other.”
At the same time, she challenged the common assumption that retirees are downsizing. Many younger baby boomers, she said, are purchasing homes with similar square footage to the ones they sold, often relocating to be closer to their children and grandchildren rather than seeking smaller homes.
Lautz also sought to dispel what she described as persistent misconceptions about down payments.
“Misinformation is out there,” she said. Many prospective buyers still believe a 20% down payment is required to purchase a home. “The typical down payment for first-time homebuyers was just 10% last year.”
