Given California’s size and its cultural and economic impact around the globe, whoever captures its governorship instantly becomes one of the nation’s most prominent politicians and a potential candidate for president.
However, running for governor is not for the faint of heart. It requires early commitment, stamina, a thick skin and the ability to raise the huge amounts of cash.
That’s why, in most cases, serious candidates come from the ranks of lesser officeholders, spend years laying the groundwork for their campaigns and declare themselves at least two years in advance of the election they hope to win.
Of the 10 men who have won the governorship since World War II — including Jerry Brown twice — only two didn’t use other offices as springboards: actors Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
However, the historic pattern is not holding for 2026 as Gavin Newsom’s governorship ends. Two of the most prominent potential Democratic candidates, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, have checked out, and those who remain in the field are — in political terms — middleweights at best.
The muddled situation is obvious in the latest poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
The strongest candidate at the moment is former Rep. Katie Porter, who lost her bid for the U.S. Senate last year, with just 17% in the Berkeley poll. She’s followed by Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former attorney general and Biden cabinet member, at 10% each. Meanwhile, nine other declared candidates are trailing at no more than 6% each, while 38% of voters are undecided.
When second choices of voters are included in the standings, Porter receives 22% of the preferences, followed by Becerra at 18%, Bianco at 15% and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor, at 12%.
In the absence of a standout, there’s much speculation in political circles about who could command instant status. Los Angeles businessman Rick Caruso, a very wealthy Republican turned Democrat, is often mentioned. This week, Politico focused on Sen. Alex Padilla.
“A prominent political entity in Sacramento is currently in the field polling the 2026 governor’s race with Padilla’s name included as a potential candidate,” Politico reported. “Padilla is not ruling out a run, according to a person familiar with his thinking who was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
“Edgar Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the senator, pivoted to … Newsom’s redistricting measure, Proposition 50 — but notably, did not close the door on a gubernatorial bid.”
Pivoting from the U.S. Senate to a bid for governor is not unprecedented. That’s exactly what Republican Pete Wilson did in 1990 after eight years in the Senate.
Wilson, then the mayor of San Diego, wanted to run for governor in 1982, but a coterie of influential Republicans preferred Lt. Gov. Mike Curb and promised to help Wilson win a Senate seat if he would not challenge Curb. Wilson easily bested Democrat Jerry Brown in their 1982 Senate duel but the Curb gambit failed. Attorney General George Deukmejian defeated Curb in the Republican primary and won a very narrow victory over Tom Bradley, the Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, for the governorship.
Were he to run, Padilla would almost certainly become the frontrunner, and there’s a certain logic to a shift from the Senate to the governorship.
The Senate is controlled by Republicans and that’s likely to continue after next year’s elections, Politico and other oddsmakers believe. Padilla, like Wilson, may be tempted to go from being 1% of the Senate to being No. 1 in the nation’s most populous state.
Dan Walters’ commentary is distributed by CalMatters, a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters.
