When Donald Trump decided to go to war with Iran, of course Iran’s first move was to choke off the shipping route that supplies at least 20% of the world’s crude oil.Â
Trump asked Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open despite killing Iran’s top leadership, neutralizing their navy and air force, and raining terror over the Iranian civilian population.
Since Iran’s only political leverage was to close shipping lanes, I wonder why Trump thought his request to keep the Strait open would be accepted.
Now this war is a battle of wills. Who will give in first — the U.S. and the energy-vulnerable international community, or largely isolated Iran?
Don’t be surprised if America blinks first.
The international economic crisis caused by the Strait’s closure is causing profound economic pain and pressure for us “to make a deal.” This pressure will only get more urgent with time. Meanwhile Iran’s allies, Russia and China, have other sources of crude oil.
The entire world is just beginning to feel the full effect of supply chain interruption exemplified by steep inflation, the increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, natural gas and produce. Supply shortages and dramatic transportation cost increases are inevitable.
For my Santa Clarita neighbors and friends, please brace yourselves. I want to alert you to that the real impact of this war is not yet upon us.
Just look at jet fuel as an example of the crippling impact the Iran war is having on our daily lives.
Highly refined and more volatile jet fuel, unlike gasoline, has a shorter shelf life at somewhere between six and 12 months.
According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe compared with last year to $187 per barrel as of this May.
Surging jet fuel costs have already forced major airlines to cut flights. Lufthansa, one of the biggest carriers in Europe, eliminated 20,000 short-haul flights through October due in part to fuel shortages.
CNBC reports that airline fuel surcharges have been implemented since we initiated the war with Iran, often ranging from $150 to over $500 per ticket on international long-haul flights. Japan Airways is charging an additional $351 per international trip just for fuel. Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 flights through September. Forbes reports that airlines will likely eliminate an estimated 13,000 flights and 2 million seats just this month alone. The airlines have already removed 9.3 million passenger seats from next month through September.
Domestic U.S. carriers, that typically hide their fuel surcharges as ticket increases and added luggage fees are cutting millions of seats for travel to maximize the availability of jet fuel.
The International Energy Agency estimates the “23-day critical threshold” for European air carriers will occur at some point in June. This will result in even more seat cuts, higher fuel surcharges, and possible rationing.
Even the United States Postal Service has implemented a temporary 8% fuel surcharge on some package services. This surcharge fee is to remain in place through January 2027.
CNBC reports that global jet fuel loaded for distribution just last week diminished by a staggering 50% to 18.6 million barrels, down from 37.8 million barrels in the same week in 2025.
Imagine if only half the world’s jet fuel is being produced right now.
Wait until Costco, Target, Walmart, Starbucks and other large retail chains start adding significant costs to everything you buy.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics posts recent increase in fuel costs at about 17%. Gas may hit $8.50 a gallon. Every cup of Starbucks coffee might be $1 more. Fresh produce costs could spike or even double.
We are in week 11 since the war began in February. Experts, such as at the Council on Foreign Relations, estimate that we passed the point of no return in April. The day Iran allows a free flow of shipping will not cure the long-term inflation and fuel shortfall for months and months.
Significant inflation is here to stay at least through the end of 2026.
This war was not started by Joe Biden or the Democrats. Trump’s war, poorly formulated and doomed from conception, has placed the world economy into potential free-fall.
The thought that we can pressure a regime with nothing to lose to give up “or else” will fail.
Better reschedule that summer vacation flight or visit with the grandchildren. Don’t even think about driving as the cost of gasoline is about to spike. Our suffering will be because of a war that should have never happened.
Jonathan Kraut directs a private investigations agency, is the CEO of a private security firm, is the CFO of an accredited acting conservatory, is a former college professor and dean, is a published author, and is a Democratic Party activist. His column reflects his own views and not necessarily those of The Signal or of other organizations.
