By Jackson Richman, Joseph Lord
Contributing Writers
With the 2026 midterm season drawing nearer, Republicans are examining the possibility of using redistricting to give themselves an advantage at the polls—and Democrats have indicated they’re ready to respond in kind.
Republicans hope that redistricting in red states like Texas, Florida, Ohio, and other states may expand their thin House majority during the next midterm election.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said his state needs to redraw its districts because of constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) surrounding four Democrat-controlled districts.
In a July 7 letter, the department outlined concerns that the state’s ninth, 18th, 29th, and 33rd congressional districts create unconstitutional “coalition districts” that run afoul of the Voting Rights Act and the 14th Amendment. Coalition districts combine different minority groups to create a potential majority.
President Donald Trump has been candid about his support for Texas Republicans’ redistricting plan. On July 15, Trump expressed his hope that his party may be able to pick up as many as five seats by redrawing the map in the Lone Star State.
Democrats, meanwhile, are increasingly expressing their openness, in the words of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, to “fight fire with fire.”
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker have also indicated openness to redrawing their own states’ congressional maps.
Democrats hope that redistricting in blue states could counteract Republicans in the next election.
Currently, Texas is in a legislative standstill after at least 51 Democrats fled the state to deprive the Texas House of Representatives of a quorum, which it needs to move forward with any legislative action.
Abbott on Aug. 4 has ordered the arrest of Democratic lawmakers who left and investigations into their alleged violations of Texas law after the Texas House voted to approve the arrest.
Here’s what to know about the potential redistricting tit-for-tat that could define state house legislative sessions this fall and beyond.
California Considers Referendum
In California, redistricting in the middle of the decade is easier said than done. An independent commission, adopted through a referendum, is responsible for drawing the state’s congressional maps.
Referencing that commission, Richard Groper, a political science professor at California State University, said, “it’s highly questionable that they can even do anything if they wanted to.”
Still, Newsom says his team is looking at the possibility of getting around the commission by submitting redrawn maps to the California people during a referendum in 2026. Voters in the deep blue bastion would then be responsible for approving or rejecting the congressional boundaries.
“It’s cause and effect,” Newsom said during a Monday press conference.
“It’s triggered on the basis of what occurs or doesn’t occur in Texas,” he said. “I hope they do the right thing, and if they do the right thing, then there’ll be no cause for us to have to move forward.”
If Texas were to move forward with the push, Newsom said, “California will not sit by idly and watch this democracy waste away. We’ll fight fire with fire. We’ll assert ourselves on a punch above our weight, and we’ll have profound impacts on the national outcome, not just here in the state of California.”
If such a referendum were submitted, it would have a good chance of passage in the state, which heavily favors the Democratic Party.
New York Exploring ‘Every Option’: Hochul
In New York, too, Gov. Hochul has indicated willingness to explore “every option” to redraw her state’s maps to favor Democrats if Texas lawmakers move forward with their redistricting.
During an interview alongside New York State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, Hochul said that the phrase “fighting fire with fire” is “a true statement of how we’re feeling right now.”
“We’re already working on a legislative process, reviewing our legal strategies, and we’ll do everything in our power to stop this brazen assault,” Hochul said.
In the Legislature, Democrats have proposed an amendment to the state Constitution that would allow for congressional districts to be redrawn in the middle of the decade if Republicans in other states redraw theirs.
“Republicans in TX and elsewhere are taking us into a new era of continuous, partisan redistricting. [State Sen. Mike Gianaris] and I are proposing to allow New York to do mid-decade redistricting if another state fires the first shot,” New York state Assemblyman Micah Lasher posted on X.
However, for procedural reasons, such a measure would not be able to take effect prior to the 2026 election, so it would be for mid-decade redistricting efforts afterward.
Some estimates suggest that New York could pick up around three seats in the already Democrat-dominated House delegation. In 2024, the party controlled 19 of the state’s 26 House seats, with the potential for a redrawn map to raise that to 22 out of 26 seats.
Nevertheless, top Democrats in the state have been communicating on what New York could do to counter Republicans’ efforts to expand their majority in red states.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) says he’s spoken to Hochul about redistricting their state.
“I’m in conversation with members of the New York delegation, as well as the governor, to explore what, if anything else, can be done to ensure that New York does its part with respect to fair maps across the country,” Jeffries said in a July 21 podcast interview.
‘Everything On the Table’ in Illinois
Another key state in the Democratic coalition, Illinois, is also considering redistricting in its own state, Pritzker said.
During an event with some of the 30 Democrats who fled Texas, Pritzker said of redistricting in Illinois, “Everything has to be on the table.”
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker speaks at the office of The Center for American Progress (CAP) Action Fund in Washington on March 18, 2025. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
One Sunday, Pritzker greeted the Texas Democrats, who are now facing fines and have been threatened with jail time and potential felony charges for their continued refusal to attend the state’s special session.
Texas Gov. Abbott wrote in a post on X: “Texans don’t run from a fight—they face it head on.
“These Texas Democrats that fled the state are not serving Texans. They are serving themselves. They forfeited their seats and are facing potential felony charges.”
Pritzker has vowed that Illinois will protect these lawmakers within the state.
Some critics have alleged that Illinois’s maps are already heavily gerrymandered, raising both allegations of hypocrisy and questions about whether Democrats could further increase their share of the U.S. House delegation from the state.
Currently, only three of the state’s 17 seats are represented by a Republican.
Kimberly Hayek contributed to this report.
