The old axiom is that it is easier to get into a war than to end it will likely prove true with the American-Israeli endeavors in Iran. Usually there are no winners in modern warfare, rather it is the party who lost the least who claims victory.Â
However, there already is one apparent clear winner from these hostilities — China.
China has received multifaceted windfalls from the U.S. attacks on Iran, which include potentially significant military, economic and political benefits.
Militarily, the Chinese have received several benefits. The first is insight into how modern American forces wage battle. The U.S. government has spent untold fortunes on new weapons that deploy the latest technology, but until now, adversaries lacked precise knowledge about those weapons’ deployment, efficacy and effective countermeasures.
It is reported that China supplied Iran with its YLC-8B data system, which can be used for many tasks, including tracking American stealth aircraft and conducting electronic surveillance to identify measures undertaken by Israel’s Mossad. The war has allowed China to beta test their data systems in combat conditions without directly engaging in combat.
If the Chinese military wants to anticipate how Taiwan will be defended, they have now gained considerable insight into such things as how American forces deploy artificial intelligence, how America positions its naval forces and how to optimally deploy drones against our most expensive and technologically advanced weapons.
We also have consumed much of our missile arsenal by attacking Iran. Not only will it be expensive to replace that weaponry, but also more importantly, it will take time for military contractors to build replacements. The arsenal to defend American interests in the Pacific has been redeployed and potentially drained to the point where its effectiveness in defending those Pacific interests may come into question. Our allies in the Pacific region will undoubtedly reconsider whether America will be there when needed.
Politically, under President Donald Trump, America has promoted its self-interests rather than being a group leader who is the bulwark of friendly coalitions. Those coalitions are weakening while China seeks to take advantage of this changed paradigm.
Undoubtedly, many nations will reconsider whether they should be less adversarial to China, or perhaps, even increase cooperation with China.
From an energy perspective, the war with Iran has strained the global supply of oil. Even if hostilities were to cease, it will likely take months to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines and for damaged oil infrastructure to be returned to service. China is believed to have the world’s largest oil reserves, so it is better positioned to withstand the shock than most other nations.
With the emergence of artificial intelligence, the need for global electricity will grow significantly. This means that national economies, including the U.S., will need to obtain energy from whatever source is available.
With expensive and increasingly scarce petroleum, nations will consider shifting to alternative energy sources including solar, wind, nuclear and battery technology to store the energy produced.
While the Trump administration has sought to favor petroleum-based energy sources, China has gained control of the majority of the global supply chains of solar and wind power generation, battery manufacture and electric vehicle production.
Due to the ongoing potential for weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, China is positioned to benefit from current and future energy disruptions resulting from the Iran conflict as nations move away from petroleum-based energy.
China also controls the overwhelming majority of rare earth mining capacity and substantially all of commercial magnet separation manufacturing. These materials and manufacturing capacity are critical to technological implementation — including for defense purposes. This may constrain our ability to replace the weapons consumed in the Iran conflict.
Finally, America is in a seemingly expensive race with China to deploy AI technology. Much of the capital required to sustain American AI leadership is funded by Gulf states who insist on deploying those financial resources on their soil.
The encounter with Iran has exposed the vulnerabilities of locating data centers and other facilities in the region. A corollary question is whether the Iran conflict will delay or decrease the amount of AI investment by Gulf states.
Clearly, there are many reasons for the Chinese to appreciate the short- and long-term implications of the Iran hostilities. It undoubtedly is in China’s best interest to ensure that the Ayatollahs remain a thorn in America’s side. While the existing Iranian regime is in an apparent precarious state, potentially near collapse, Chinese support may be able to keep them in power for the foreseeable future.
Jim de Bree is a Valencia resident.
