I have written several letters to the editor of The Signal about my concerns that a major earthquake could burst the Castaic Dam, and friends have even labeled me, “The sky is falling Dorio.”
The dam is estimated to withstand an 8.0 quake, but with recent earthquakes around the world approaching that magnitude, I’m increasingly worried that we must be better prepared should “The Big One” strike us with full force.
First, you must understand that a dam rupture is not new to the Santa Clarita Valley. The 1928 St. Francis Dam collapse resulted in an estimated 500 casualties. A scary fact is that the Castaic Dam reservoir holds 8.5 times the water volume of the St. Francis Dam.
Second, the nearby population and downstream residents have grown significantly.
Let me walk you through the scenario of what might happen if the dam were to suddenly breach.
The initial wave will fill the immediate 2-mile canyon below with a wave over 100 feet high. As this surge turns west along the Santa Clara River, it will remain 30-50 feet high and cut through Fillmore and Santa Paula at 12 to 15 mph.
The water will become a mudflood carrying rocks, pulverized hillside material, uprooted trees, and asphalt. According to inundation zone maps, part of the Chiquita Canyon Landfill will be washed away, exposing trash, toxins and other pollutants that will flow into the ocean and contaminate the environment along the way.
The official state emergency management models do not publish a fixed estimate of deaths for a hypothetical Castaic Dam failure. Yet it is still estimated that 150,000 to 200,000 residents will be at risk. The newly approved 3,600 homes lie directly in the path should the dam rupture.
We need to be ready to get people off the roads and to higher ground. The government needs to help prevent a future catastrophe. Apparently, evacuation plans have been developed, but the public is unaware of them.
Maybe it’s time for legislators to discuss the sky falling or the dam bursting.
Dr. Gene Dorio
Saugus
