As Donald Trump’s loose cognitive associations cause his messages to meander, his mind to wander, and his objectives to change from moment to moment, the world economy is about to collapse into chaos as it faces energy uncertainty.
Most of Asia and part of Europe rely on liquefied natural gas to power their cities and industry, primarily supplied by Qatar. Singapore’s entire industrial base is vulnerable to collapse without Qatar’s natural gas supply.
This example shows how resources from one little country can impact half the industrialized world.
What if one fifth of the world’s oil supply, one third of all fertilizers, and 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas all passes through Iranian-adjacent waters to get to the rest of the planet? Is there a foreseeable risk to the world’s smooth economic engine if all at once access to these resources suddenly cease?
Such is the case regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s critical positioning at the strait is the one diplomatic card Iran has — a key to its political survival. Stopping this supply route will damage the economic system globally in a matter of weeks.
Almost anything shipped by sea, rail, or truck is powered by diesel. Airlines need jet fuel to move us from point to point. The U.S. is sending out oil to support other countries, many of whom are already rationing fuel, and our prices are rising.
“America first” means a stable world economic environment. If you only buy what is grown in the USA, you will have to eliminate coffee, chocolate and bananas from your diet. Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, China, Zimbabwe and Bolivia supply much of the lithium needed for lithium-ion batteries — so a battery shortage would also be imminent.
We should not be feuding, having childish squabbles, and temperamental disputes with other nations. But Trump does not realize that there is no more “going it alone.”
Trumpworld is all about squashing a bug if you can, insulting those who don’t kiss up, and ignoring reality when truth defies “the narrative.” Trumpworld does not acknowledge that when we shut off the resources and supplies to some, in time this is felt by all.
If Trump wanted regime change, why is he still negotiating with the same regime, albeit different people, running Iran?
If Trump wanted to keep oil prices level, why do so in a way that hurts allies like Strait of Hormuz-adjacent countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar?
“Do what I say, or else” doesn’t work when the entire world economy is poised for disaster if Iran shuts off means of resource transport.
So how does the brilliant mind of Trump react to this predicable disaster? He also blockaded the Strait of Hormuz.
CNN reports this cessation of energy supply “could cause the worst economic disaster in world history.” The International Monetary Fund states that the world’s jet fuel supply will only last maybe another six weeks. China is 20 days into using its 100-day supply of crude oil. The U.S. already expended a quarter of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. We had about 20 days of this reserve left.
Another genius move by Trump is that he temporarily lifted Iranian and Russian sanctions imposed by the U.N., the U.S., and many other countries. These sanctions were designed to financially cripple the Russian economy to help end the war in Ukraine and to curb Iranian interest in exporting terrorism and nuclear development.
These embargoes were recently lifted by Trump to help stabilize the world oil prices, the very disaster Trump created. As we are experiencing, gas prices are not dropping. And be assured Russia and Iran are at last raking in desperately needed cash to keep their economies afloat.
But rather than wait for a negotiated resolution, Trump just announced everything is already settled. But he forgot to include Iran regarding the terms.
His back against the wall, Trump announced “a deal” — without getting confirmation from Iran.
Just like the Abraham Accords, where Trump claimed he negotiated peace in the Middle East, only one side was at the bargaining table. Obviously, there was no peace as Israel invaded Gaza and Lebanon and heightened Middle East hostility still exists.
While Trump closed the very passageway he insisted stay open, funding the opposition with the cash they needed to survive, he is now saying he made a deal, but has no document to show for it — just meandering words.
Was this war a genius move? No, it was amateur hour.
Jonathan Kraut directs a private investigations agency, is the CEO of a private security firm, is the CFO of an accredited acting conservatory, is a former college professor and dean, is a published author, and is a Democratic Party activist. His column reflects his own views and not necessarily those of The Signal or of other organizations.
