In November, California voters will elect a new governor, fill other statewide offices and choose occupants of 152 legislative and congressional seats.
It’s certain — as certain as anything can be in politics — that the vast majority of the men and women voters elect will be Democrats, extending the party’s three-decade-long domination of California.
The only mystery is whether Democrats can capture all five of the extra seats targeted in a voter-approved gerrymander of congressional districts last year.
The state’s June primary election results reveal a corrosive factor is undermining the party’s future, according to the man who wrote the autopsy on Democratic losses in 2024, veteran political strategist Paul Rivera.
In May, the national Democratic Party released a truncated version of Rivera’s analysis of Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Californian Kamala Harris two years ago. But it omitted a chapter that was critical of former President Joe Biden’s mid-campaign’s decision to drop his bid for reelection and the immediate selection of Harris, Biden’s vice president as the substitute candidate.
Recently Rivera released a 564-page updated version of his study, contending that Democrats have lost ground with working-class voters, are too influenced by upper-class elites and have given too much power to professional operatives who have become “generationally wealthy off politics.”
While Republicans pursue their conflict with Democrats constantly, Rivera bemoans, Democrats become active only during election years, throwing money at tight contests at the last minute to make up lost ground after ignoring grassroots organizations.
“The difference is right-wing interests take a longer-term approach and amplify polarizing Democratic messaging and candidates with the intention of ‘othering’ all Democrats,” he writes. “Without aggressive pushback and tactics, it works.”
Rivera cites California’s primary as typifying the party’s structural problem.
“The data from the 2026 California primary, a state where all voters are proactively mailed their ballots, should be a critical warning sign for Democrats everywhere,” Rivera writes in the updated version of his critique. “The data shows very low turnout among voters under 35 years of age (21%) in comparison to voters 65 and older (58%). Turnout among Hispanic voters (26%), Asian voters (34%), and Black voters (37%) all trail turnout among white voters (43%).
“Will Democrats win California in November? Of course. Yet in these unprecedented times, why is there not more energy in opposition to the status quo? If these patterns play out in battleground states and districts — where younger Americans and non-white voters do not participate to support Democrats — it will be very difficult to win the House or Senate or build power in the states.
“It is also likely Republicans will outspend Democrats this cycle — for the first time since 2018 — so Democrats need to truly out-organize Republicans to win.”
Rivera also sees California as an example of larger demographic trends that will make it more difficult for Democrats to prevail in the future.
He cites population losses, or very slow growth, in blue states such as California, New York and Illinois and gains in red states such as Florida and Texas.
The recalculation of congressional districts after the 2030 census will mean fewer presidential electoral votes in California and its sister states and more in rival red states.
The demographic projections, Rivera says, “should bring sharp focus to the scope and scale of the challenges before Democrats. Without change, Democrats will be locked out of power. National neglect is what led Democrats to this moment — more of the same is not the answer.
“None of this will be easy, but moving past talk and into action on some or all of these takeaways can make a massive difference in outcomes for the party and for the country. It’s time to get to work.”
Dan Walters’ commentary is distributed by CalMatters, a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters.
