Part 2 of 2
The cessation of American bombing and economic strangulation of Iran do not mark the end but the beginning of a new phase of problems for Iran. Once “peace” arrives, so will the internet of some sort in Iran, and, with that, a horde of Western reporters. Then the world will begin to witness hundreds of billions of dollars’ of damage done to the Iranian military-industrial complex.
The already restless people will feel more contempt for the Revolutionary Guard and theocracy, who talked a grand game, but whose imbecility and weakness caused the wreckage of their country. They will especially resent the regime’s effort to rebuild a multi-billion military infrastructure while subsidizing nihilist Arab terrorists — all at their expense. Arming the resistance is another tool when Iran breaks its word.
Critics of the memorandum of understanding, not without merit, argue that the Gulf states will effectively underwrite the rebuilding of Iran’s civilian and military infrastructure. Regrettably, perhaps.
But not so fast. What the Gulf states say now and what they actually do are two different things. It will not be popular in the Gulf to aid the reconstruction of an Iran that preemptively bombed Gulf nation airports, hotels, tourist centers, and oil refineries and caused them billions of dollars in damage.
Iran thinks time is on its side, as Donald Trump — at least for now — faces high gas prices and the midterms. In truth, time and dragging out negotiations are not in Iran’s interest, given the midterms are not a sure Democratic bet, and the price of gas is already falling.
Even if it behaves for the next four months as the MOU morphs into armistice negotiations, sooner or later the Iranian regime will revert to its innately terrorist nature and begin violating its agreements. Then Trump can hit Iran hard but not to the point of crashing oil prices or restarting the war.
Once the midterms are over, and oil prices return to — or fall below — prewar levels, Trump will be unbound to force Iran to comply with new demands or let it wail and gnash its teeth among the rubble of its own ruin. Even more worrisome to Iran is the current mad scramble of the Gulf states to build new or expand existing pipelines to the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea — neutering the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz altogether.
In a year or two, Iran may find its enemies can far better bottle up Iran’s imports and exports by closing the strait than Iran can do anything to interrupt the oil exports of the Gulf producers.
If Iran increases production, alongside Russia and expanded output in the U.S. and Venezuela, prices would likely drop — perhaps precipitously — and that would hit the economies of illiberal regimes in Moscow and Tehran far more than the United States.
Despite recent U.S. verbal, performance-art remonstrations against Israel, the Gulf and Israel will both see their interests increasingly aligned; for all the demonization of Israel, it poses no threat to the Gulf or moderate Arab nations. After all, in the past it has taken out two nuclear reactors in an unstable Iraq and Syria, demolished Hamas, intimidated the Houthis, and done more damage to Hezbollah than any other Western nation — all, ironically, to the profit and interest of the Gulf nations and the U.S.
Europe may despise Trump. But his antics have prompted it to spend more money on defense, more rapidly, than at any time in NATO’s history. Within a year, a bleeding Russia will have limited ability to threaten European NATO nations.
China can no longer buy cheap sanctioned oil. Beijing now imports over 10 million barrels of oil per day and 30% of its food. China’s technological position depends on espionage and on sending the West half a million Chinese students each year — at a time when illegal and legal immigration, along with student visas and green cards, are all under scrutiny in Europe and the U.S.
Two other unhinged left-wing talking points claim Iran is better off now than it was when it was never bombed during the 2015 Obama “Iran Deal” and that only Trump ensured the closure of the strait. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been repeating both absurdities.
Warren should ask the late supreme leader and some 80 of his theocratic terrorist cronies whether they would have preferred the Obama years a decade ago to their current domain in a fiery inferno.
Are we to believe the lunacy that the Iranian air force, air defenses, navy, and missile arsenal were actually in bad shape during the Obama and Biden years because of American sophistry and rhetoric, and that now, after 40 days of bombing, they are in their greatest form ever?
The strait was closed for a few weeks because Iran lost most of its military and had its nuclear program buried under a flurry of bombs. It remained mostly open under prior presidents, who repeatedly warned Iran to stop work on a bomb then failed to back up their threats.
In sum, the memorandum and what follows are not the end of the story but merely the beginning. What will follow — years of costly Iranian reconstruction, the absence of a nuclear deterrent, the ability of the U.S. to strike at will, an increasingly sidelined Strait of Hormuz, the Israeli diminishment of its proxies, new anti-Iranian alliances, the loss of nuclear patrons, and an even angrier and more restive populace — will not require an Iraq- or Afghanistan-like intervention.
As the Iranians digest all this, they will stop bragging about the memorandum and increasingly try to lie, finagle and escape their doom loop — efforts that will only ensure further fragmentation and destruction of the regime.
Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, a professor of Classics Emeritus at California State University, Fresno, and a nationally syndicated columnist for Tribune Media Services.
